Temporal variation of major nutrients and probabilistic eutrophication evaluation based on stochastic-fuzzy method in Honghu Lake, Middle China

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SCIENCE CHINA Technological Sciences
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SCIENCE CHINA Technological Sciences, Volume 62, Issue 3: 417-426(2019) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-017-9264-8

Temporal variation of major nutrients and probabilistic eutrophication evaluation based on stochastic-fuzzy method in Honghu Lake, Middle China

Fei LI1,2, ZhenZhen QIU1,2, JingDong ZHANG1,2,*, ChaoYang LIU1,2, Ying CAI1,2, MinSi XIAO1,2, LiYun ZHU1,2
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  • ReceivedNov 3, 2017
  • AcceptedApr 23, 2018
  • PublishedFeb 22, 2019
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Abstract

Honghu Lake, which is listed in the Ramsar Convention, was found to be contaminated with elevated nutrients to a certain extent. This study investigated the seasonal variation of major nutrients and probabilistic eutrophic state in surface water from Honghu Lake. Average concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), chemical oxygen demand (CODMn) and transparency (SD) in summer and winter generally exceeded Grade III of the Chinese environmental quality standards for surface water (GB 3838-2002), with the exception of CODMn in winter. Mean concentrations of Chl-a and CODMn in summer were higher than that in winter, while mean concentrations of TN, TP and SD were slightly higher in winter. The improved probabilistic comprehensive trophic level index (PTLI) method based on stochastic-fuzzy theory was established to evaluate the eutrophic state in Honghu Lake. Compared with the Monte-Carlo sampling method, the Latin Hypercube sampling (LH-TFN) method was selected for the evaluation simulation due to its efficiency and stability. Evaluation results indicated that mean PTLI in summer (69.70) and winter (61.96) were both subordinated to Grade IV (Medium eutrophication). The corresponding reliability of eutrophication level subordinating to Grade IV in summer was of relatively low reliability (51.27%), which might mislead decision makers to some extent and suggest recheck. The probabilistic eutrophication level in summer developed with a trend from medium to severe eutrophication. Sensitivity analysis illustrated that CODMn and Chl-a were the priority pollutants in summer, with the contributions to PTLI of 43.3% and 22.5% respectively. Chl-a was the priority pollutant in winter, with the contribution to PTLI up to 51.3%.


Funded by

the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(Grant,No.,17YJCZH081)

Nature Science Foundation of Hubei Province and the Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Education Department(Grant,No.,B2017601)


Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 17YJCZH081), Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province and the Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Education Department (Grant No. B2017601).


Supplement

Supporting information

The supporting information is available online at http://tech.scichina.com and https://springerlink.com. The supporting materials are published as submitted, without typesetting or editing. The responsibility for scientific accuracy and content remains entirely with the authors.


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